Refuse Trucks Market Size, CAGR & Forecast, 2025-2035

Electrified and Automated Collection Is Lifting Refuse Truck Spending Faster Than Unit Volumes

Global spending on refuse trucks reached USD 15.42 Billion in 2025, and Radial Insights projects USD 16.25 Billion in 2026 and USD 26.04 Billion by 2035, a 5.38% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. Value is rising faster than truck counts because each new unit carries more automation, more emissions hardware and, in a growing share of cities, a battery pack.

This refuse trucks market study covers complete waste collection vehicles sold new: the body (rear loader, front loader, automated side loader, roll-off hoist and smaller satellite or grapple units) together with its chassis, whether bought as one integrated vehicle or as a body mounted on a separately purchased cab. It excludes street sweepers, vacuum and septic trucks, stationary compactors, containers, used-truck resale, and aftermarket parts and service.

Fleet purchasing is concentrated. In the United States, WM alone runs more than 12,000 natural gas trucks, and Republic Services had passed 250 battery electric collection vehicles by September 2026. In Europe, municipal tenders such as Birmingham City Council's 151-vehicle award to Dennis Eagle in January 2025 set volume for a whole year at a single supplier.

Battery electric refuse trucks are the fastest segment, growing at 17.80% a year from a small base, because stop-and-go routes of about 80 to 120 miles a day fit current battery sizes well. Africa is the fastest region at 6.60% a year, driven by new municipal collection concessions in large cities, while Asia Pacific (APAC) holds the largest share at 34.20%.

The refuse trucks market forecast assumes diesel keeps the largest installed base through 2030, with natural gas and electric units taking most incremental orders in North America and Western Europe after that.

Automated Side Loaders and Battery Electric Units Set the Pace Across Refuse Truck Segments

Segment growth in the refuse trucks market splits along two lines: how waste is lifted into the body and what powers the chassis. Both are moving toward fewer drivers per route and lower fuel cost per ton, which is why the newest configurations post the highest rates.

Automated Side Loaders Outgrow Rear and Front Loaders

Automated side loaders grow at 6.80% a year because one driver can service a residential route without leaving the cab, which answers labor shortages and injury claims at the same time. Heil's 2026 Common Body platform shares more than 44% of components between the DuraPack Python side loader and the Half/Pack front loader, a sign that body makers are designing for automation first. Rear loaders, at 4.70%, remain the default for narrow European streets and bulky waste, and roll-off trucks, at 4.40%, follow construction and commercial activity rather than household routes.

Battery Electric Units Lead Propulsion Growth While Diesel Slows to 2.10%

Battery electric refuse trucks grow at 17.80% a year. Routes are short, the trucks return to one depot each night, and frequent braking lets regeneration recover energy. Natural gas, at 6.40%, keeps growing in North America because haulers such as WM already own fueling stations and can use renewable natural gas from their own landfills. Diesel grows at only 2.10% as cities in Europe and coastal US states shift their purchase specifications. Hybrid and hydrogen units grow at 12.30%, mostly in pilot fleets in Germany, the Netherlands and Korea.

Medium Duty Trucks Gain on Heavy Duty in Dense Cities

Medium duty refuse trucks grow at 6.10% against 5.10% for heavy duty units. Smaller trucks, such as the 7.5-tonne Orus units in the Birmingham order, are used for food waste and narrow streets, and they are easier to electrify with smaller packs. Heavy duty trucks still carry most tonnage in North America.

Fully Automated Operation Grows at 7.40% as Driver Shortages Persist

Fully automated trucks grow at 7.40%, semi-automated at 5.30% and manual at 2.90%. The gap reflects hiring difficulty for helpers who ride on the back of the truck and the higher injury rates on manual routes. Cart standardization by municipalities is the precondition, and many US cities have now completed that switch.

Municipal Fleets Grow Slightly Faster Than Private Haulers

Municipal fleets grow at 5.70% because public-sector zero emission purchase rules, such as California's government fleet requirements, still apply after the state narrowed its Advanced Clean Fleets rule. Private haulers grow at 5.20% and industrial and commercial buyers at 4.60%, with spending tied to contract wins and route density.

Market Trends

Heavy Truck Brands Are Entering the Low-Cab-Forward Refuse Niche

In May 2025, at WasteExpo, Kenworth launched the L770 and the battery electric L770E, its first low-cab-forward refuse trucks. The L770E carries a 350 kWh LFP battery, offers up to 120 miles of range and supports 125 kW DC charging. Its arrival adds a third PACCAR and Volvo Group competitor in a space long led by Mack, Peterbilt and Autocar.

Large Haulers Are Scaling Electric Fleets, Not Running Pilots

Republic Services had more than 180 electric collection vehicles at the end of 2025 and passed 250 by September 2026, with a target of 300 by year end and more than 30 charging sites. Its electric fleet mixes McNeilus Volterra ZSL, Mack LR Electric and Peterbilt 520 units, which spreads supplier risk across three chassis.

European Cities Are Buying Electric Rear Loaders in Batches

In November 2025, the city of Karlsruhe took delivery of 7 Mercedes-Benz eEconic trucks with FAUN rear-loader bodies, with 11 more on order for a fleet of 18. Each truck has three packs of about 97 kWh usable capacity and runs routes of about 80 km a day, and the purchase was supported by Germany's federal KsNI funding program.

Consolidation Is Reshaping the Supplier Base

Terex and REV Group announced a merger in October 2025 and closed it in February 2026, placing Heil refuse bodies and REV specialty vehicles in one company with about USD 7.8 billion in combined net sales. Volvo Trucks showed an FM Low Entry electric refuse truck with a 360 kWh battery at IFAT Munich in May 2026, which points to European chassis makers designing factory low-entry cabs for collection work.

Restraints and Challenges

Rule Rollbacks Have Reduced the Regulatory Push in North America

In September 2025, the California Air Resources Board voted to repeal the high-priority and drayage fleet parts of its Advanced Clean Fleets rule. Public fleets remain covered, but the 100% zero emission purchase date for them moved from 2027 to 2030, which pushes some electric orders out by several budget years. The rulemaking record is on the CARB Advanced Clean Fleets page.

Electric Trucks Still Cost Far More Than Diesel Units

A battery electric refuse truck still costs substantially more than a diesel equivalent before incentives, and depots need high-power chargers and grid upgrades. Haulers report that utility interconnection timelines, not truck deliveries, often set the pace of rollout.

Order Timing Is Uneven Across Quarters

Oshkosh reported refuse and recycling vehicle sales of USD 156.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from USD 193.9 million a year earlier on lower volume, even though full-year sales rose. Municipal budgets and hauler contract cycles make orders lumpy, which complicates factory planning.

Emissions Rule Uncertainty Clouds Diesel Engine Planning

In June 2026, the US EPA proposed changes to its 2027 heavy-duty NOx rule, keeping the 0.035 g/bhp-hr limit but cutting the warranty requirement from 450,000 to 100,000 miles. The change lowers expected cost per truck by about USD 6,000 according to EPA, but the open rulemaking delays some pre-buy and fleet replacement decisions.

Growth Drivers

Municipal Zero Emission Purchasing Keeps Electric Orders Moving

Public fleets are the anchor buyers for electric refuse trucks. California's amended rule still requires state and local government fleets to move to zero emission purchases by 2030, and cities from New York to Chicago have used state grants to fund first units. In July 2025, Mack delivered an LR Electric to Royal Waste Services under New York's "The Bronx Is Breathing" program, backed by a USD 10 million state prize award, and Royal Waste added three more units after its first truck hauled more than 600 tons in its opening months. In Europe, the amended heavy-duty CO2 regulation keeps targets of 43% lower emissions by 2030 and 64% by 2035, which forces chassis makers to sell more zero emission vocational trucks. We estimate this driver adds about +1.4% to annual market growth through 2035, mainly through higher unit prices.

Driver and Helper Shortages Favor Automated Bodies

Collection is one of the most injury-prone jobs in transport, and haulers struggle to hire helpers for manual routes. Automated side loaders let one operator collect an entire residential route without leaving the cab. Heil's Common Body platform, which cuts in-cab buttons by at least 66%, and the McNeilus Volterra ZSL integrated electric side loader both target this buyer need. Republic Services and WM have both made automation a standard part of route redesign. The shift from manual to automated equipment is worth roughly +0.9 percentage points of the refuse trucks CAGR, because automated bodies sell at a clear premium over rear loaders.

Waste Volumes and Collection Contracts Are Rising With Urban Population

WM reported 2025 revenue of USD 25,204 million and net collection revenue of USD 15,421 million, up from USD 14,890 million in 2024, and spent USD 3,227 million on capital items, much of it on trucks and containers. In Asia Pacific (APAC), Africa and the Middle East, new city concessions bring formal collection to districts that previously relied on informal pickers, creating first-time demand for compactor trucks. Indian city programs under Swachh Bharat and Gulf city cleaning contracts both specify compactor fleets in their tenders. Together, volume growth and new concessions contribute close to +2.1% a year to market expansion, the largest single component of our forecast.

Opportunities

Renewable Natural Gas Gives Haulers a Low Carbon Bridge

Republic Services runs about 20% to 25% of its fleet on renewable natural gas, and WM's 12,000-plus natural gas trucks can draw on landfill gas the company produces itself. Suppliers that offer near-zero NOx natural gas engines, such as the Cummins X15N in Kenworth's L770, can sell into fleets that are not ready for batteries.

Telematics and Body Data Create Recurring Revenue

Cameras, RFID cart readers and route software turn each refuse truck into a data source for billing and contamination control. Body makers that bundle these systems can earn service revenue across the full service life of the truck.

Asia Pacific (APAC) Leads Refuse Truck Spending While Africa Grows Fastest

Asia Pacific (APAC)

Asia Pacific (APAC) holds 34.20% of the global refuse trucks market, worth USD 5.27 Billion in 2025, and is projected to reach USD 9.49 Billion by 2035 at a 6.05% CAGR. China's sanitation fleets are electrifying quickly under city new energy vehicle quotas, while India's urban missions fund compactor purchases for municipal bodies. Japan and Korea buy smaller compact packers suited to narrow streets.

North America

North America accounts for 31.60% of spending, at USD 4.87 Billion in 2025, rising to USD 7.82 Billion by 2035 at a 4.85% CAGR. North American demand is shaped by large private haulers: WM runs more than 12,000 natural gas trucks and Republic Services passed 250 electric collection vehicles in 2026. Oshkosh's refuse sales of USD 743.9 million in 2025 give a sense of the scale of a single body supplier.

Europe

Europe represents 23.40% of 2025 value, or USD 3.61 Billion, and is expected to reach USD 5.71 Billion by 2035 at a 4.70% CAGR. European cities buy through public tenders, and electric low-entry chassis such as the Mercedes-Benz eEconic and Volvo FM Low Entry are now standard bid options. The amended EU heavy-duty CO2 regulation targets a 43% emissions cut by 2030.

Latin America

Latin America holds 5.10% of the market, valued at USD 0.79 Billion in 2025, and should reach USD 1.36 Billion by 2035 at a 5.60% CAGR. Brazil and Mexico lead purchases, with concession contracts in Sao Paulo and Mexico City requiring fleet renewal at set intervals.

Middle East

The Middle East accounts for 3.70% of spending, at USD 0.57 Billion in 2025, growing to USD 1.05 Billion by 2035 at a 6.30% CAGR. Gulf city cleaning contracts in Riyadh, Dubai and Doha specify new compactor fleets with automated bin lifts, and large events and tourism growth raise collection frequency.

Africa

Africa holds 2.00% of the market, worth USD 0.31 Billion in 2025, and is the fastest-growing region at 6.60% a year, reaching USD 0.58 Billion by 2035. Lagos, Nairobi and Johannesburg are expanding formal collection, often with donor or development-bank funding for first compactor fleets.

Recent Developments

• In September 2026, Republic Services reported more than 250 battery electric collection vehicles in service and set a target of 300 by the end of 2026.

• In May 2026, Volvo Trucks presented an FM Low Entry electric refuse truck with a 360 kWh battery and an FM Electric roll-off truck at IFAT Munich.

• In February 2026, Terex completed its merger with REV Group, combining Heil refuse bodies with REV specialty vehicles under the Terex name.

• In November 2025, Karlsruhe put 7 Mercedes-Benz eEconic electric refuse trucks with FAUN bodies into service, with 11 more on order.

• In May 2025, Kenworth launched the L770 and battery electric L770E low-cab-forward refuse trucks at WasteExpo.

• In January 2025, Dennis Eagle won Birmingham City Council's tender for 151 refuse collection vehicles, including 110 Elite+ and 41 Orus units.

Body Specialists and Truck OEMs Share Control of the Refuse Truck Supply Chain

The refuse trucks market has two layers of suppliers. Body makers build the compaction and lifting equipment, and chassis makers supply the cab, axles and powertrain. A few firms do both, and electric models are pushing more buyers toward integrated vehicles where one supplier answers for the whole truck.

North American Body Leaders

Heil, part of Terex Environmental Solutions, is the largest US body brand, known for the DuraPack Python automated side loader and Half/Pack front loader; the segment reported 2025 sales of USD 1,691 million. McNeilus, owned by Oshkosh, builds rear, front and side loaders and the Volterra ZSL, a fully integrated electric side loader used by Republic Services. New Way Trucks and Curbtender serve regional haulers and municipal buyers, with Curbtender focused on rear loaders on medium duty chassis.

Chassis Makers With Dedicated Refuse Cabs

Mack Trucks, part of Volvo Group, has long led the low-cab-forward segment with the LR and LR Electric. Peterbilt offers the Model 520 and 520EV, and Kenworth joined in 2025 with the L770 and L770E. Autocar builds the ACX cabover and its electric E-ACX, and Battle Motors sells the LET2 tilt cab in electric and diesel versions. These firms compete on driver visibility, step height and service networks as much as price.

European Integrated Specialists

Dennis Eagle, part of Royal Terberg Group, leads the UK refuse market with the Elite+ and eCollect electric models. FAUN, part of the Kirchhoff Group, supplies VARIOPRESS and POWERPRESS rear-loader bodies across Germany and has built hydrogen and electric units. Zoeller supplies bodies such as the Medium X4 on Volvo electric chassis, and Mercedes-Benz Special Trucks builds the Econic and eEconic low-entry chassis used by many German cities.

Competitive Direction

Competition is moving from steel bodies to systems: battery integration, electric power take-off for the compactor, cameras and route software. Suppliers that can deliver a complete electric truck with one warranty, as McNeilus and Dennis Eagle do, hold an edge in public tenders where buyers want a single point of responsibility.