Battery electric cars took 26.2% of UK new car registrations in January-September 2026, against a legislated zero emission vehicle (ZEV) target of 33% for the year, leaving a gap of 6.8 percentage points. That gap was 2.4 points in 2024 and 4.6 points in 2025, so the shortfall has grown in each of the three years the ZEV mandate has been in force, even as battery EV volume rose 30.2% year on year.
The UK market is not stalling. It is splitting. Plug-in hybrids grew faster than battery EVs in 2026, petrol's year-to-date share fell 6 points in a year, and the Department for Transport (DfT) has now consulted on cutting the 2030 car target from 80% to as low as 50%. For tire makers and distributors, the more useful number may be a different one: only 5.0% of the cars on UK roads at the end of 2025 were zero emission, which is where replacement tire demand actually comes from.
Battery EVs reached 26.2% of UK new cars in 2026, 6.8 points short of the 33% target
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported 454,947 battery EV registrations in the first nine months of 2026, out of a total market of 1,739,271 cars. The total market grew 10.2%, so battery EVs gained share on a rising base rather than on a shrinking one. September alone, the plate-change month, delivered 99,201 battery EVs, or 28.3% of 350,536 registrations.
That September figure is still below the 33% target, and the year-to-date figure is well below it. SMMT calculated that reaching 33% on its July 2026 market outlook of 2.183 million cars would need roughly 265,000 more battery EV registrations in the fourth quarter alone. For comparison, battery EV registrations in the whole of the first nine months averaged about 50,500 a month.
The longer series shows how the curve has flattened. Battery EV share jumped from 6.6% in 2020 to 16.6% in 2022, then slipped to 16.5% in 2023, a year in which fleet and business buyers took 77.1% of battery EV volume. Since the mandate began in 2024, share has added about 3 points a year, while the target has risen by 5 or 6 points a year.
| Year | Total new cars | Battery EV registrations | Battery EV share | ZEV mandate target | Gap (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1,631,064 | 108,205 | 6.6% | None | n/a |
| 2021 | 1.65 million | 190,727 | 11.6% | None | n/a |
| 2022 | 1.61 million | n/a | 16.6% | None | n/a |
| 2023 | 1.903 million | 314,687 | 16.5% | None | n/a |
| 2024 | 1,952,778 | 381,970 | 19.6% | 22% | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 2,020,520 | 473,348 | 23.4% | 28% | 4.6 |
| 2026 (Jan-Sep) | 1,739,271 | 454,947 | 26.2% | 33% | 6.8 |
The 2020 share is computed from SMMT unit figures. The 2022 release gave share but not a battery EV unit count, so that cell is left blank rather than estimated.
The shortfall widened every year because the mandate steps up faster than demand
The ZEV mandate, set in the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS) Order, requires 22% of a manufacturer's new car sales to be zero emission in 2024, 28% in 2025, 33% in 2026, 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030, rising to 100% in 2035. The steepest steps come after 2027: 14 points in each of 2028 and 2029.
Missing the headline number has not meant non-compliance. The DfT's own review shows that zero emission cars were 19.8% of sales in the 2024 scheme year, below the 22% target, but the car market reached an equivalent of 24.5% once flexibilities were counted. Those flexibilities include borrowing future allowances (repayable by 2030 with 3.5% compound interest), converting CO2 over-performance into ZEV credit until 2029, banking surpluses for up to three years, and transferring credits between the car and van schemes. Allowances that did trade in 2024 changed hands at an average of about £4,000 each.
For 2025, the DfT's provisional figure is 23.3% zero emission cars against a 28% target, and the department expects the market to comply through a mix of sales and flexibilities. The pattern matters for anyone forecasting the fleet. Credits and borrowing close the regulatory gap on paper, but they do not put more battery EVs on the road. Borrowed allowances also have to be repaid by 2030, the year the target reaches 80%.
Plug-in hybrids, not battery EVs, gained most in 2026 as petrol fell to 41.5%
The fastest growing powertrain in 2026 was the plug-in hybrid. SMMT counted 244,769 plug-in hybrid registrations in January-September, up 41.8%, which took their share from 10.94% to 14.07%. Battery EV volume grew 30.2%. Conventional hybrids rose 7.9% in volume but held roughly flat on share at 13.81%.
The loser was petrol. Its share fell from 52.2% in 2024 to 46.4% in 2025 and to 41.49% in the first nine months of 2026, a drop of 10.7 points in under two years. Diesel shrank from 6.3% to 4.47% over the same period.
Plug-in hybrids do not count toward the ZEV target, so their growth explains part of the gap. Buyers who leave petrol are splitting between battery EVs and plug-in hybrids rather than moving straight to battery power. The DfT review notes that plug-in hybrids registered in 2025 averaged roughly 22 g CO2/km on the official test, but that real-world emissions were estimated at 3 to 7 times that figure. Even so, it puts them at roughly 40% cleaner in real-world terms than the average petrol, diesel or hybrid car.
The August 2026 review puts a 2030 target between 50% and 80% on the table
The DfT opened its ZEV Mandate Review consultation on 14 August 2026 and closed it on 23 October 2026. The government said it would not change the end of new petrol and diesel car sales in 2030 or the 100% zero emission requirement in 2035. What it did put out for comment was the path between now and 2030.
Four alternatives sit beside the legislated trajectory. Option 1 would set 36% in 2027 and 70% in 2030. Option 2 would set 36% in 2027 and 60% in 2030. Option 3 would set 35% in 2027 and 50% in 2030. Option 4 keeps the current targets but extends borrowing, banking and CO2 conversion to 2034. At the low end, the 2028 target would fall from 52% to 37%.
Demand-side policy is moving at the same time. The Electric Car Grant, worth £2 billion and funded to 2029/30, has supported more than 160,000 new electric car sales and applies to cars priced at or under £37,000. Against that, the government's consultation response on Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) confirms a charge of 3 pence per mile for electric cars and 1.5 pence per mile for plug-in hybrids from April 2028, with mileage checked against MOT odometer readings. The Expensive Car Supplement threshold rises from £40,000 to £50,000. Buyers in 2027 will therefore be weighing an upfront grant against a known running-cost charge.
The car parc lags far behind sales: 5.0% of UK cars are zero emission
New registrations set the direction, but tires are replaced on the cars already on the road. DfT vehicle licensing statistics show 1,737,000 zero emission cars licensed at the end of 2025, up 35% in a year and equal to 5.0% of road-using licensed cars. At the end of 2024 the figure was 1,287,000, or 3.8%. The average licensed car was 10 years old at the end of 2025.
That age profile is why the parc moves slowly. A market in which more than a quarter of new cars are battery powered still has 95% of its car fleet running on something else. At four tires per car, the zero emission parc represents roughly 6.9 million fitted tire positions, compared with about 138 million across all 34.5 million road-using licensed cars.
The cohort timing is more precise. Cars in Great Britain take their first MOT at three years, and the eVED rules use that check to verify mileage. Battery EVs registered in 2023, 2024 and 2025 total 1,170,005 cars, and they reach that three-year point between 2026 and 2028. That is the wave that moves EV tire demand from the original equipment channel into the independent replacement channel.
What the gap means for tire makers, distributors, OEMs and investors
Tire makers should plan UK EV fitments against the parc, not the mandate. If the review lands on Option 2 or Option 3, the 2030 target would be 20 to 30 points lower than the current 80%, but the 2023-2025 cohort of about 1.17 million battery EVs is already registered and will drive replacement volumes whatever happens to the target. Plug-in hybrids, which reached 14.07% of new cars, add a second group of plug-in cars that sit outside the ZEV statistics.
Distributors and independent fitters face a mix question more than a volume question. With battery EVs at 26.2% and plug-in hybrids at 14.07% of 2026 registrations, about 40% of new cars plug in. Stocking depth in EV-rated fitments matters more in 2027 and 2028, when the 2024 and 2025 cohorts reach their third year on the road. Our UK tire market report and EV-specific tires market report cover the size split behind those fitments.
OEMs and their tire suppliers carry the compliance cost. Every point of shortfall has to be covered by credits, borrowing or compliance payments, and borrowed allowances fall due by 2030. Original equipment volumes for battery EV models therefore depend partly on discounting decisions that the review outcome will shape. A softer trajectory reduces pressure to push battery EVs through fleet and discount channels.
Investors should read the 6.8-point gap as a signal of policy risk rather than a demand collapse. Battery EV volume rose 23.9% in 2025 and 30.2% in 2026 to date. The exposure sits with companies whose plans assume 52% in 2028: under Option 3 that number is 37%. Across Europe, the UK result is one input into the replacement outlook in our Europe passenger car tires market report.
Methodology and sources
All shares are of new car registrations unless stated. Gaps are percentage points between the battery EV share and the headline car ZEV target. The 2020 share is calculated from SMMT unit counts. The 6.9 million tire positions figure multiplies the 1,737,000 zero emission cars by four. The 2023-2025 cohort adds SMMT annual battery EV registrations. The ZEV mandate counts zero emission cars, which are mostly battery EVs, so scheme-year figures from the DfT differ slightly from SMMT battery EV shares.
- SMMT, Record electric car market powers bumper September (5 October 2026): September and January-September 2026 registrations by fuel type, Q4 requirement estimate, July 2026 market outlook.
- SMMT, UK new car market breaches two million (6 January 2026): 2025 and 2024 registrations by fuel type, 2024 and 2025 targets.
- SMMT, New car market delivers best year since 2019 (5 January 2024): 2023 totals and battery EV registrations.
- SMMT, Chip crisis subdues new car market (5 January 2023): 2022 total and battery EV share.
- SMMT, Covid stalls 2021 UK new car market (6 January 2022): 2021 total and battery EV registrations.
- SMMT, 2020 new car registrations (6 January 2021): 2020 total and battery EV registrations.
- DfT, Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate Review consultation (August 2026): legislated trajectory, Options 1-4, 2024 and 2025 compliance data, flexibilities, Electric Car Grant, plug-in hybrid emissions.
- HM Government, eVED consultation response (2026): per-mile rates, April 2028 start, mileage verification, Expensive Car Supplement threshold.
- DfT, Vehicle licensing statistics, United Kingdom: 2025 (29 April 2026): zero emission cars licensed at end 2025, share of parc, average car age.
- DfT, Vehicle licensing statistics, United Kingdom: 2024 (11 June 2025): zero emission cars licensed at end 2024 and share of parc.
Frequently Asked Questions
26.2% in January-September 2026, or 454,947 of 1,739,271 registrations, up from 23.4% for full-year 2025.
6.8 percentage points: the 2026 car target is 33% against a 26.2% battery EV share. The gap was 2.4 points in 2024 and 4.6 points in 2025.
Not necessarily. In 2024 zero emission cars were 19.8% of sales, but flexibilities such as borrowing and CO2 conversion lifted the market to an equivalent 24.5%, above the 22% target.
It consulted on 2030 car targets of 70%, 60% or 50% instead of 80%, plus an option keeping 80% with flexibilities extended to 2034. The consultation closed on 23 October 2026.
1,737,000 at the end of 2025, up 35% in a year but only 5.0% of road-using licensed cars.
Between 2026 and 2028, when the 1,170,005 battery EVs registered in 2023-2025 reach their third year and first MOT in Great Britain.