Southeast Asian plants supplied 20.1% of the truck and bus tires Canada imported in 2025, up from 4.1% in 2017, while China's share of import units barely moved, from 22.5% to 24.3%. That shift matters because Canada's new trade case names only one country. On October 30, 2026, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) found a reasonable indication that dumped and subsidized truck and bus tires from China have caused injury to Canadian producers, keeping the case alive.
The next step comes from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which must issue preliminary determinations by November 30, 2026, the point at which provisional duties can apply. When it opened the case, the CBSA estimated a dumping margin of 29.1% and a subsidy amount of 23.9% of the export price for Chinese tires. Those numbers point to a large tariff wedge on one origin. The import data point to a supply base that has already spread to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia, which together shipped 1,887,161 truck and bus tires to Canada last year.
The case targets China alone, and the CBSA puts the price gap near 30%
The complaint was filed on July 10, 2026 by the Canadian Retread Manufacturers Association and Michelin North America (Canada) Inc. The CBSA opened dumping and subsidy investigations on August 31, 2026, and the CITT started its preliminary injury inquiry (PI-2026-005) on September 1, 2026, according to the tribunal's initiation notice and the Canada Gazette of September 12, 2026.
The scope is narrow on size and wide on type. It covers pneumatic tires for trucks, buses, trailers and other medium and heavy vehicles with nominal rim diameters of 17.5, 19.5, 22.5 or 24.5 inches, new or retreaded, radial or non-radial, tube-type or tubeless. The CBSA notice of initiation lists three tariff lines: 4011.20.00.13, 4011.20.00.19 and 4012.12.00.00.
In its statement of reasons for initiation, the CBSA estimated that Chinese subject goods were dumped by 29.1% of the export price over a period of investigation running from April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026, based on five benchmark products. It estimated subsidies at 23.9% of the export price; the complainants had put that figure anywhere from 12.9% to 58.4%. These are initiation estimates, not final duty rates. The CBSA can extend its preliminary deadline to 135 days from initiation, and its case index shows the investigation concluding on March 1, 2027.
China held 44.6% of in-scope imports in 2025, and 48.9% in early 2026
The CBSA's own import table measures only the subject sizes, so it gives a sharper view than the broad customs heading. China held 51.3% of the in-scope import market in 2022 and 50.6% in 2023. Its share fell to 39.6% in 2024, then climbed back to 44.6% in 2025 and 48.9% in the first quarter of 2026.
The rebound is the core of the complaint. The CBSA statement reports that subject imports from China rose 19.7% in units from 2024 to 2025 and 7.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter of 2025, while the complainants' domestic production and sales declined. Over the full 2022 to 2025 span, Chinese units fell 2.4%, so the case rests on the recent surge rather than a long climb.
The table has a second message. Imports from origins other than China and the United States rose from 29.4% of the in-scope market in 2022 to 36.7% in 2025. That was the fastest-growing bucket of the three over the period, and it is the one a China-only order does not touch.
| Origin | 2017 units | 2017 share | 2025 units | 2025 share | 2025 value per tire (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4,006,307 | 46.4% | 3,104,028 | 33.1% | 153.2 |
| China | 1,946,239 | 22.5% | 2,276,823 | 24.3% | 95.2 |
| Cambodia | 0 | 0.0% | 764,281 | 8.2% | 76.4 |
| Vietnam | 120,353 | 1.4% | 622,683 | 6.6% | 104.5 |
| Thailand | 189,149 | 2.2% | 337,989 | 3.6% | 138.4 |
| Indonesia | 41,899 | 0.5% | 159,113 | 1.7% | 48.5 |
| Japan | 556,884 | 6.5% | 437,103 | 4.7% | 135.7 |
| All origins | 8,630,884 | 100% | 9,376,585 | 100% | 123.9 |
Table 1: Canada's imports of new truck and bus tires (HS 401120) by origin. Source: UN Comtrade; value per tire is customs value in US$ divided by units.
Southeast Asia's share grew fivefold in eight years, led by Cambodia
On the broader customs heading for new bus and truck tires, HS 401120, Canada imported 9,376,585 units worth US$1,161.4 million in 2025. Unit volume was 8.6% higher than in 2017 and value was 23.8% higher. Within that total, the five Southeast Asian origins went from 351,592 units in 2017 to 1,887,161 in 2025, 5.4 times the starting level.
Cambodia is the clearest case. It shipped no truck and bus tires to Canada in 2017 and only 23,303 units in 2022. It sent 372,806 units in 2024 and 764,281 in 2025, a 105% jump in one year that made it the third-largest origin by units at 8.2%. Vietnam rose from 120,353 units in 2017 to 622,683 in 2025, a 5.2-fold increase. Thailand reached 337,989 units and Indonesia 159,113.
The loser was the United States. US-origin units dropped from 4,006,307 to 3,104,028 between 2017 and 2025, down 22.5%, and the US share fell 13.3 percentage points to 33.1%. Japan's share slipped from 6.5% to 4.7%. China plus the five Southeast Asian origins now account for 44.4% of all truck and bus tire units entering Canada, against 26.6% in 2017.
The pattern repeats what US buyers have already seen. The US has kept antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese truck and bus tires in place, most recently after the US International Trade Commission's five-year review vote of August 8, 2024. Factories built in Southeast Asia to serve North America under those orders can ship to Canada just as easily, and the Comtrade series shows them doing so.
Chinese tires entered at US$95.2 each, 38% below US-origin tires
Average customs value per tire is a rough gauge, since product mix differs by origin, but the spread is wide. Chinese truck and bus tires entered Canada at an average of US$95.2 in 2025, 23% below the all-origin average of US$123.9 and 38% below the US$153.2 average for US-origin tires. Chinese unit values also sat below their own 2022 level of US$112.1.
Cambodian tires averaged US$76.4, about 20% below the Chinese figure, and Indonesian tires US$48.5. Vietnam came in at US$104.5 and Thailand at US$138.4. The Indonesian number likely reflects smaller or lighter tires within the heading, so it should not be read as a like-for-like price. Even so, two of the four main Southeast Asian origins are cheaper per unit than China, which means duties on Chinese tires alone would not remove the low-price segment from the Canadian market.
Imports fell 15.2% in early 2026, but China's share rose to 25.1%
Monthly data show the market cooling while the case was being prepared. From January to August 2026, Canada imported 5,723,903 truck and bus tires under HS 401120, 15.2% fewer than the 6,750,375 units in the same months of 2025. Import value fell 13.3% to US$722.3 million.
Chinese shipments fell less than the market. China sent 1,438,038 units in the first eight months of 2026, down 10.4%, which lifted its share of units to 25.1% from 23.8%. Its average value per tire in that window was US$93.5, compared with US$126.2 for all origins. That fits the CBSA's first-quarter figure of 48.9% for in-scope sizes: as total demand weakened, the cheapest supply held its ground.
What the case means for fleets, retreaders, distributors and tire makers
Retreaders are the main domestic industry here. The CBSA describes Michelin as the only manufacturer of new truck and bus tires in Canada, so most of the "domestic like goods" are retreads. Kal Tire, Fountain Tire, Pneus Metro, Pneus Robert Bernard and J.D. McArthur Tire Services back the complaint, and the CBSA notes that most retreaders operate as franchised licensees of the Bandag, MRT/Oliver or UniCircle systems. A low-cost new tire competes directly with a retread on casing economics, so provisional duties would improve retread pricing first. Background on that segment is in our retread tires market report.
Distributors and importers face a timing risk. Provisional duties can apply from the CBSA preliminary determination, due by November 30, 2026. Chinese-origin stock landed after that date may carry estimated duties, while Vietnamese, Cambodian and Thai tires would not. Expect sourcing to tilt further toward those origins over the winter.
Fleets should budget for higher prices at the bottom of the market rather than across it. With Southeast Asia already supplying one in five imported units, budget-tier tires should remain available, though not at the US$95.2 Chinese average if duties near the initiation estimates are applied.
Tire makers with Southeast Asian capacity stand to gain share in Canada, as they did in the US. US exporters, whose share fell 13.3 points in eight years, gain only if Southeast Asian supply cannot fill the gap. Our commercial truck and bus tires market and Canada tire market reports track these supply shifts.
Investors should watch two dates: November 30, 2026 for the CBSA preliminary determination, and March 1, 2027 for the investigation's conclusion. A widening of the case to Southeast Asian origins would need a new complaint, and the trend in Figure 1 is the evidence such a complaint would use.
Methodology and sources
Import units and values come from Canada's reported imports in UN Comtrade under HS 401120 (new pneumatic tires of rubber, of a kind used on buses or lorries), annual 2017-2025 and monthly January-August 2025 and 2026. Shares are calculated on units; value per tire is US$ customs value divided by units. This heading is broader than the case scope, which covers only 17.5 to 24.5-inch rims and also includes retreads, so Comtrade shares differ from the CBSA's in-scope shares. Southeast Asia is Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia. All derived figures were recalculated from source data.
- CITT, determination of reasonable indication of injury, truck and bus tires from China (October 30, 2026): trigger event and next steps.
- CITT, initiation of preliminary injury inquiry PI-2026-005 (September 1, 2026): complainants and timetable.
- CBSA, notice of initiation, TBT 2026 IN (August 31, 2026): product scope and tariff classification numbers.
- CBSA, statement of reasons for initiation (September 15, 2026): dumping and subsidy estimates, in-scope import shares (Table 1), import volume changes, domestic industry description, preliminary determination deadline.
- CBSA, SIMA investigations index: investigation conclusion date.
- Canada Gazette, Part I, Vol. 160, No. 37 (September 12, 2026): official notices of the CBSA decisions and CITT inquiry.
- UN Comtrade database: Canada imports, HS 401120, by partner, annual and monthly.
- US International Trade Commission, five-year review of truck and bus tires from China (August 8, 2024): continuation of US orders.
Frequently Asked Questions
On October 30, 2026 the CITT found a reasonable indication that dumped and subsidized truck and bus tires from China have caused injury, so the CBSA investigation continues toward preliminary determinations due by November 30, 2026.
At initiation the CBSA estimated a 29.1% dumping margin and a 23.9% subsidy amount, both as a share of the export price; final rates depend on the investigation.
China held 44.6% of in-scope imports in 2025 and 48.9% in Q1 2026 by CBSA estimates, and 24.3% of units under the broader HS 401120 heading in 2025.
Southeast Asia already supplied 20.1% of import units in 2025, led by Cambodia with 764,281 tires and Vietnam with 622,683.
Chinese tires averaged US$95.2 per unit in 2025, 38% below the US$153.2 average for US-origin tires, while Cambodian tires averaged US$76.4.
It covers new and retreaded truck, bus and trailer tires with rim diameters of 17.5, 19.5, 22.5 or 24.5 inches under tariff lines 4011.20.00.13, 4011.20.00.19 and 4012.12.00.00.