The US Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) cut its 2026 US tire shipment forecast by 8.6 million units between March and August 2026, from 338.9 million to 330.3 million units. Truck tires, original equipment (OE) and replacement combined, absorbed 1.9 million units of that cut, or 22%, even though they made up only 8.7% of the volume in the February forecast.
The revision turns what was expected to be a record year into a 1.8% decline from 2025's 336.3 million units and leaves 2026 below the 332.7 million shipped in 2019. For buyers, the more useful signal is the pattern underneath it: replacement truck tires have become the most volatile segment of the US market, swinging by double digits from year to year while freight volumes barely move.
Truck tires took 22% of the downgrade while making up less than 9% of volume
USTMA publishes its outlook twice a year, and the gap between the February 2026 forecast (released March 4, 2026) and the July 2026 forecast (released August 6, 2026) is unusually wide. Every one of the six segments was marked down. In absolute terms, replacement passenger tires took the largest hit, 5.0 million units, which is roughly in line with their 65.9% share of volume.
The outlier is replacement truck. Its 2026 forecast fell from 24.7 million to 22.9 million units, a reduction of 1.8 million. That is 20.9% of the total cut from a segment holding 7.3% of forecast volume. Put differently, the truck replacement forecast was revised almost three times harder than its weight in the market would suggest. OE truck lost a further 0.1 million units, taking the combined truck share of the downgrade to 22%.
On the OE side, the revisions were small: 0.6 million units for passenger, 0.2 million for light truck and 0.1 million for truck. USTMA now expects OE shipments to fall by a total of 0.1 million units compared with 2025, against a replacement decline of 5.9 million. The 2026 weakness is therefore a replacement story, not a vehicle production story.
Replacement truck volumes swing 14% a year on average; passenger moves about 2%
Lining up USTMA's actual shipments from its successive releases shows how differently the segments behave. Replacement truck shipments rose from 18.9 million units in 2019 to 26.6 million in 2022, fell 21.8% to 20.8 million in 2023, then recovered to 23.4 million in 2024 and 24.7 million in 2025. From 2021 to 2025 the average absolute year-on-year change was 14.0%. Replacement passenger, by contrast, averaged 2.2% and OE passenger 7.7%.
| Segment (million units) | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026F (Jul) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OE passenger | 46.3 | 37.4 | 41.6 | 45.7 | 43.1 | 41.3 | 41.0 |
| OE light truck | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| OE truck | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| Replacement passenger | 222.6 | 224.8 | 213.7 | 219.2 | 221.6 | 221.9 | 218.3 |
| Replacement light truck | 32.5 | 38.6 | 37.2 | 34.3 | 36.7 | 37.7 | 37.1 |
| Replacement truck | 18.9 | 22.9 | 26.6 | 20.8 | 23.4 | 24.7 | 22.9 |
| Total | 332.7 | 335.2 | 332.0 | 331.9 | 337.3 | 336.3 | 330.3 |
Source: USTMA forecast releases of February 2022, February 2023, July 2024, February 2025, February 2026 and July 2026. Figures are rounded by USTMA, so segments may not sum exactly to totals. 2020 is omitted because the releases used here do not report it.
Indexed to 2019, the divergence is stark. Replacement truck sits at 121 in the 2026 forecast and peaked at 141 in 2022. Replacement light truck sits at 114. Replacement passenger is at 98, OE passenger at 89 and OE truck at 71. A distributor that sized truck tire inventory on the 2022 run rate would have been carrying stock for a market 22% smaller a year later.
OE truck fitments are 29% below 2019, and a 25% parts tariff now applies
OE truck tire shipments fell to 4.4 million units in 2025, down 22.8% from 5.7 million in 2024 and 32.3% below 2019. USTMA expects only a partial recovery to 4.6 million in 2026, which is still 28.6% below the 2019 level. No other segment has fallen as far from its 2019 level.
That shrinking OE base has changed the shape of the truck tire market. In 2019 the US shipped 2.9 replacement truck tires for every OE truck tire. In 2025 the ratio was 5.6, and the 2026 forecast implies 5.0. Nearly all truck tire demand now comes from the installed fleet rather than new vehicle builds, which makes the segment more sensitive to fleet purchasing cycles and dealer stocking than to truck production schedules.
Trade policy sits on top of this. On October 17, 2025, the White House announced Section 232 tariffs of 25% on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks and their parts, and 10% on buses. The accompanying fact sheet lists tires among the covered parts, and the proclamation applies the duties to goods entered on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on November 1, 2025. USMCA-compliant parts are exempt until Commerce sets up a process to tariff their non-US content. USTMA's releases do not attribute any of its revisions to tariffs, so the timing should be read as context, not as a proven cause.
Freight volumes stayed flat while tire shipments swung
If replacement truck tires tracked freight, the forecast cut would imply a sharp drop in trucking activity. The data do not show one. The American Trucking Associations' seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index rose just 0.1% in 2025, its first annual gain since 2022, and stood at 112.9 in December 2025 (2015 = 100). In July 2026 the index was 113.5, down 0.5% from a year earlier but up 1.4% year to date.
Flat freight and a 7.1% forecast drop in replacement truck shipments for 2026 point toward channel and import timing rather than tire wear. Two details support that reading. First, replacement truck shipments rose in 2025 even though OE truck shipments fell sharply, consistent with buyers bringing in product ahead of the November 2025 tariff date. Second, USTMA's November 2025 forecast was prepared without August and September trade data because of the federal government shutdown, and the association warned that replacement estimates could carry larger than usual errors. That release put 2025 replacement truck shipments at 25.2 million units; the final figure published in March 2026 was 24.7 million, 0.5 million lower.
Passenger replacement is now forecast below its 2019 level
The largest absolute cut fell on replacement passenger tires, now forecast at 218.3 million units for 2026. That is 1.6% below 2025 and 1.9% below 2019. Seven years after the 2019 benchmark, the core of the US replacement market has not grown in volume. Replacement light truck is the exception, forecast at 37.1 million units, 14.0% above 2019, the only replacement segment besides truck that is still well above its pre-pandemic volume.
OE passenger shipments are forecast at 41.0 million units, 11.3% below 2019 and slightly below 2025's 41.3 million. Combined with flat replacement demand, this leaves passenger and light truck revenue growth dependent on mix and price rather than unit volume. Trade remedies remain part of the cost picture for imported passenger and light truck tires. In a preliminary administrative review published on January 14, 2026, Commerce calculated a 2.94% dumping margin for Sentury Tire (Thailand) and 0.00% for Sumitomo Rubber (Thailand), while the all-others cash deposit rate stays at 17.06%.
What the revision means for tire makers, distributors, fleets and investors
Tire makers
Capacity plans for US truck tires should be built on a band rather than a point. Replacement truck shipments have ranged between 20.8 million and 26.6 million units since 2022, a spread of 5.8 million units, while the OE base has shrunk to 4.4 million. Producers with US plants serving the OE channel face a smaller anchor customer, while importers face a 25% Section 232 duty on non-USMCA truck tires. Radial's commercial truck and bus tires market analysis covers the segment's supply base in more detail.
Distributors and dealers
The 2023 experience, when replacement truck shipments fell 21.8% in a single year, is the relevant stress test. With freight volumes flat, any inventory built ahead of tariffs in 2025 has to be worked down through 2026, which is what the July forecast implies. Dealers should watch sell-out data rather than sell-in, and treat USTMA's November releases with extra caution when trade data are delayed.
Fleets
A 25% duty on imported truck tires raises the cost gap between new tires and retreads, which reuse an existing casing. Fleets that already run retread programs have a hedge against both tariff costs and supply swings. For context on that channel, see Radial's retread tires market report.
Raw material buyers
Lower US replacement volumes in 2026 reduce demand for truck-grade natural rubber, steel cord and carbon black at the margin. Procurement teams supplying truck tire lines should expect the 1.8 million unit replacement truck cut to show up in 2026 order books before it appears in published shipment data.
Investors
The headline 1.8% decline in 2026 shipments understates the risk concentrated in truck replacement, where a 7.1% fall follows two years of growth. Companies with heavy exposure to US truck replacement through imports, and limited USMCA-compliant production, carry the most earnings sensitivity. Radial's US tire market report places these segment trends in the context of the full market.
Methodology and sources
Shipment figures are taken directly from USTMA forecast releases, which report actual shipments for the prior year and a forecast for the current year in millions of units. Actuals for each year come from the releases listed below. Shares of the forecast cut, indexes, ratios and average absolute year-on-year changes were calculated by Radial Insights from these published figures. Percentages quoted as USTMA figures (for example, the 7.1% decline in replacement truck and the 28.6% gap in OE truck versus 2019) are USTMA's own calculations from unrounded data; percentages calculated from rounded figures may differ by a few tenths of a point. 2020 is not shown because the releases used do not report it.
- USTMA July 2026 Forecast (August 6, 2026): 2026 forecast of 330.3 million units by segment, 2025 and 2019 comparisons.
- USTMA February 2026 Forecast (March 4, 2026): 2025 actual shipments by segment and the earlier 2026 forecast of 338.9 million units.
- USTMA November 2025 Forecast (December 2, 2025): late-2025 estimates and the note on missing trade data during the shutdown.
- USTMA February 2025 Forecast (March 6, 2025): 2024 actual shipments by segment.
- USTMA July 2024 Forecast (August 8, 2024): 2023 actual shipments by segment.
- USTMA February 2023 Forecast (February 28, 2023): 2022 actual shipments by segment.
- USTMA February 2022 Forecast: 2021 actual and 2019 shipments by segment.
- ATA Truck Tonnage Index, December 2025 (January 20, 2026): 2025 annual change and December index level.
- ATA Truck Tonnage Index, July 2026 (August 18, 2026): July index level, year-on-year and year-to-date change.
- White House fact sheet, October 17, 2025: Section 232 tariff rates and coverage of tires as truck parts.
- Presidential proclamation on medium and heavy-duty vehicles and parts: November 1, 2025 effective date.
- Federal Register, January 14, 2026: preliminary results of the antidumping administrative review on passenger and light truck tires from Thailand (A-549-842).
Related Radial analysis: North America passenger car tires market.
Frequently Asked Questions
8.6 million units, from 338.9 million in the February 2026 forecast to 330.3 million in the July 2026 forecast. That leaves 2026 1.8% below 2025's 336.3 million units.
20.9% of the cut fell on replacement truck, whose forecast dropped 1.8 million units to 22.9 million despite holding 7.3% of forecast volume. Replacement passenger had the largest absolute cut at 5.0 million units.
14.0% a year on average from 2021 to 2025, against 2.2% for replacement passenger. Shipments fell 21.8% in 2023 alone, from 26.6 million to 20.8 million units.
28.6% below 2019: USTMA forecasts 4.6 million units for 2026 versus 6.5 million in 2019. In 2025 OE truck shipments were 4.4 million units, down 22.8% from 2024.
25% Section 232 tariffs on medium and heavy-duty truck parts, which the White House lists as including tires, apply to goods entered from November 1, 2025. USMCA-compliant parts are exempt for now.
0.1% was the rise in ATA truck tonnage in 2025, and tonnage was up 1.4% year to date in July 2026, while the 2026 replacement truck tire forecast is 7.1% below 2025.