Imported tires took 70% of Brazil's replacement market in January-August 2026, up from 34% in 2019, according to the national tire manufacturers' association ANIP. Import arrivals of passenger and truck tires rose 58.3% year on year to about 34.2 million units, while replacement sales by Brazilian plants fell 13.3% to about 14.6 million.
The shift is no longer gradual. Imports crossed half of the replacement market in 2025 at 59%, then jumped to 69% in the first quarter of 2026 and have held at 69-71% since. China supplies 81% of imported passenger tires even with anti-dumping duties in place, and truck tire imports more than doubled in eight months. A request to raise the passenger tire import tariff from 25% to 35% is reported to be on the agenda of Gecex, the federal trade committee, for late October 2026, so the next tariff decision lands on a market that is already import-led.
Imports doubled their replacement share in seven years, from 34% to 70%
ANIP's own series shows how quickly the balance moved. In 2020 Brazilian plants held 73% of the market and imports 27%. By 2021 the domestic share was 66%. In 2025 it was 41%, and in January 2026 it touched 28%, the lowest level ANIP has recorded. The domestic share has stayed between 29% and 31% in every cumulative 2026 reading since.
| Period | Domestic share | Import share | ANIP release |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 66% | 34% | September 2026 |
| 2020 | 73% | 27% | January 2026 |
| 2021 | 66% | 34% | March 2026 |
| 2025 | 41% | 59% | January 2026 |
| January 2026 | 28% | 72% | March 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | 69% | April 2026 |
| H1 2026 | 29% | 71% | July 2026 |
| Jan-Aug 2026 | 30% | 70% | September 2026 |
Two cautions apply. First, ANIP compares import arrivals recorded in ComexStat with its members' sell-in to the replacement channel, so the share describes supply entering the market, not tires fitted to vehicles. Second, ANIP has quoted the 2019 domestic share as both 66% and 69% in different 2026 releases; we use the 66% figure from the most recent release. Neither caveat changes the direction. On ANIP's numbers, roughly seven of every ten replacement tires now entering the Brazilian channel were made abroad.
Truck tires flipped fastest: import volumes up 116% in eight months
The passenger segment is the largest in units, but the truck and bus segment moved fastest in 2026. ANIP reports truck and bus tire imports up 116.2% in January-August, with imports now holding 72% of that replacement market. In the first half alone, truck tire imports rose 157.9% and reached a 73% share.
| Jan-Aug, million units | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger and light commercial imports | 18.3 | 27.0 | +47.8% |
| Passenger domestic replacement sales | 13.8 | 11.9 | -14.1% |
| Truck and bus imports (derived) | 3.3 | 7.2 | +116.2% |
| Truck and bus domestic replacement sales | 3.1 | 2.8 | -9.8% |
| Total imports | 21.6 | 34.2 | +58.3% |
| Total domestic replacement sales | 16.9 | 14.6 | -13.3% |
Change figures are ANIP's, calculated on unrounded units. Tariff history explains part of the truck surge. Brazil cut the import tariff on several truck tire lines to 0% between 2021 and 2023, restored 16% in March 2023, and in September 2024 refused ANIP's request to lift truck tires to 35% while raising passenger tires to 25%. Radial truck tires from China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Thailand do face anti-dumping duties, which Gecex confirmed in April 2024, yet Chinese truck tire imports still rose 78% to 2.64 million units in January-August 2026. Buyers tracking the commercial truck and bus tire market should read Brazil as the clearest case in Latin America of fleet buyers switching origin on price.
Arrivals outran demand by about 10 million tires, which points to stock building
The more useful number for distributors is not the share but the total. Add imports to domestic replacement sales and the volume entering Brazil's replacement channel rose from about 38.5 million units in January-August 2025 to about 48.8 million in the same months of 2026, an increase of roughly 27%. Nothing in ANIP's data points to replacement demand growing that fast: Brazilian plants' own replacement sales fell, and they had already fallen 7.5% in 2025.
The likely reading is that a large part of the 2026 import wave is inventory, not consumption. Importers have a clear reason to bring stock forward: the 25% passenger tariff was renewed for twelve months in September 2025, ANIP asked for 35% in 2024 and 2025 and has asked again in 2026, and a Gecex review is reported for the end of October. Tires landed before a tariff change keep the old rate. This is an inference from the volumes, not a figure ANIP publishes, but it matters for pricing. If even part of the roughly 10 million extra units is sitting in warehouses, replacement prices are likely to stay soft into 2027 whatever Gecex decides, and a higher tariff would take months to work through the channel.
The same arithmetic warns against reading the 70% share as permanent. If imports were front-loaded, the share could ease in late 2026 or 2027 as stock is sold down, even with no change in competitiveness. A falling import share in the next few ANIP releases would therefore not by itself mean the domestic industry has recovered.
Brazilian plants lost volume in every channel in 2025, and OE no longer cushions it
ANIP members sold 37.7 million tires in 2025, excluding motorcycle tires, down 5.8% from 40.0 million in 2024. Replacement sales fell 7.5% to 25.3 million units, sales to automakers fell 2.1% to 12.4 million, and truck tire sales fell 7.7% to 6.1 million.
Original equipment had been the offset. Through September 2025, sales to automakers rose 6.6%, from 9.53 million to 10.16 million units, with passenger OE up 7.6%, while replacement fell 7.0%. That cushion has gone. OE sales fell 4.6% in the first quarter of 2026 and were flat at minus 0.3% in the first half. With OE flat and replacement shrinking, Brazilian plants sold 17.8 million passenger and truck tires in the first half of 2026, down 6.8% from 19.1 million.
The industry those numbers describe is 11 companies with 19 factories in seven states and 35,000 direct jobs, according to ANIP. ANIP also says 80% of Brazil's natural rubber output goes to domestic tire makers, so lower plant volumes feed straight back to rubber growers. The Brazilian natural rubber producers' association said in December 2025 that import pressure was already cutting demand for local rubber.
Tariff policy has moved in small steps, and China still holds 81% of passenger imports
Brazil has used both ordinary tariffs and anti-dumping duties, but neither has reversed the trend. The main decisions are below.
| Date | Measure |
|---|---|
| Jan 2021 | Import tariff on several truck tire lines cut to 0% |
| Mar 2023 | Gecex restores a 16% tariff on truck tires |
| Apr 2024 | Gecex Resolution 583 confirms anti-dumping duties on radial truck and bus tires from China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Thailand |
| Sep 2024 | Passenger car tires (NCM 4011.10.00) raised from 16% to 25% for 12 months; truck tire increase to 35% rejected |
| Sep 2025 | 25% passenger tariff renewed for 12 months; request for 35% refused |
| Dec 2025 | Gecex Resolution 819 extends anti-dumping duties on bias motorcycle tires from China and Vietnam (USD 2.18/kg) and Thailand (USD 1.10/kg) for up to five years |
| Oct 2026 | ANIP request for 35% on passenger tires reported on the Gecex agenda |
The passenger tariff increase in late 2024 did slow imports for a while. ANIP data cited in September 2025 showed import volumes down 14.2% in January-July 2025, with imports at 57% of the market. The pause did not last: in 2026 China supplied 81% of passenger tire imports, about 21.8 million units, up 49%. Cambodia, which began shipping to Brazil in 2024, was already the third-largest origin in 2025, according to ANIP figures reported in January 2026.
The importers' association Abidip argues the other side. It says Brazilian plants do not make many popular sizes, such as 13-inch and 14-inch rims, at scale, that older vehicles depend on imported tires, and that a higher tariff would raise costs for app drivers, taxis and fleets. ANIP counters with a study it commissioned estimating the 35% tariff would add 0.005 percentage points to IPCA consumer inflation. Both claims come from interested parties; the Gecex decision will show which carries more weight.
What the 70% share means for tire makers, distributors and other buyers
Tire makers with Brazilian plants. The domestic share has been near 30% for eight months, so planning should assume the current mix persists through at least mid-2027. ANIP said in September 2025 that Chinese tires arrive at prices up to 40% lower. Moving the tariff from 25% to 35% raises the duty-inclusive import price by about 8%, which closes only part of that gap, so local producers need a plan for sizes and segments where they can win on lead time and fitment, such as OE and premium performance and UHP tires in Latin America, rather than chasing imports on entry sizes.
Distributors and importers. The 27% jump in total channel volume is the main risk. Inventory bought ahead of a possible tariff change carries price risk if the channel is overstocked. Watch the next two ANIP releases: if imports keep rising while domestic replacement sales keep falling, discounting pressure will continue into 2027.
Fleet operators. Truck tires are now 72% imported in replacement, with no tariff increase since 2023. That keeps prices competitive, but procurement teams that retread should check casing quality and retreadability by brand, since a lower purchase price can be offset by fewer retread lives.
Raw material suppliers. Lower Brazilian plant output means less local demand for natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and textiles. Suppliers selling into Brazilian tire plants should plan for flat to lower volumes, while those supplying Asian exporters gain indirectly.
Automakers and investors. OE is now the domestic industry's most stable channel, which gives automakers pricing power with local suppliers. For investors, Brazilian tire plant volumes depend more on Gecex decisions than on vehicle demand, so policy timing is the main variable to track. Global context for the segment is in our passenger car tires market coverage.
Methodology and sources
Shares and volumes come from ANIP releases, which combine member sales with ComexStat import records. Import volumes for truck tires were derived as total imports minus passenger imports. Combined channel volume (imports plus domestic replacement sales) and all percentage changes not quoted by ANIP were recalculated by Radial Insights. Motorcycle tires are excluded unless stated. Sources used:
- ANIP, release dated 24 September 2026: January-August 2026 import growth, segment shares, China share, 2019 share, tariff request.
- AutoData, 28 September 2026: unit volumes behind the ANIP January-August 2026 release.
- ANIP, release dated 30 July 2026: H1 2026 sales, import growth and shares.
- ANIP, release dated 20 May 2026: January-April 2026 share, inflation estimate, natural rubber use.
- ANIP, release dated 29 April 2026: Q1 2026 sales and shares.
- ANIP, manifesto release, March 2026: 2021, 2025 and January 2026 shares, truck tariff history.
- ANIP, 2025 annual sales release, January 2026: 2024 and 2025 sales by channel, 2020 and 2025 shares.
- ANIP, release of 28 October 2025: January-September 2025 sales by channel.
- ANIP, release of 4 December 2025: natural rubber producers' comment on import pressure.
- MDIC, Gecex 218th meeting deliberations, September 2024: passenger tariff increase to 25%, rejected truck increase, truck tire anti-dumping confirmation.
- Gecex Resolution 819 of 1 December 2025 (text circulated by Hong Kong's Trade and Industry Department): motorcycle tire anti-dumping rates.
- AutoData, 24 September 2025: renewal of the 25% tariff, January-July 2025 import data.
- Mercado & Consumo, 20 January 2026: ANIP 2025 figures on China and Cambodia as import origins.
- Fiscodata, 20 March 2023: Gecex decision restoring the 16% truck tire tariff after the 0% rate set in January 2021.
- Diario do Grande ABC, 22 April 2026: Abidip position.
- Tribuna de Minas, 12 October 2026: Gecex agenda timing for the 35% request.
Frequently Asked Questions
70% in January-August 2026, according to ANIP, up from 34% in 2019. Brazilian plants held the remaining 30%.
Imports rose 58.3% in January-August 2026 to about 34.2 million passenger and truck tires, while replacement sales by Brazilian plants fell 13.3% to about 14.6 million.
Truck and bus tires: imports rose 116.2% in January-August 2026 and now hold 72% of that replacement market.
China supplied 81% of passenger tire imports in January-August 2026, about 21.8 million units, despite anti-dumping duties.
25%, raised from 16% in September 2024 and renewed in September 2025. ANIP has asked Gecex to raise it to 35%.
Yes. ANIP members sold 37.7 million tires in 2025, down 5.8% from 40.0 million in 2024, with replacement sales down 7.5%.